As Atlanta United, and MLS, develops deeper knowledge and use of data analytics, we’ll be taking a look behind the curtain at some of the specific stats the club values. In our new weekly content series, we examine one metric provided by StatsBomb that may not stand out on a first watch, but upon closer evaluation, is a useful tool to measure the team’s performance. This is Staying on Track presented by MARTA.
Over the course of our series, we’ve taken a look at several attacking-based metrics. We’ve laid out the three principles that define a high-quality chance. We’ve broken down a game-tying goal and shown how it was one of the fastest goals scored in Atlanta United history. We’ve also taken a closer look at ball-winning actions, with drivers Tristan Muyumba and summer addition Pedro Amador, and how that leads to more scoring opportunities.
This week, we’ll define another attacking metric that impacts a team’s efficiency when possessing the ball.
The metric: Passes per chance
What it measures: How often a team can create chances relative to their possession.
Passes per chance looks to capture how often a team can create chances relative to their possession. A lower value means a team is more direct with their chance creation and is able to create chances at a high rate when they possess the ball. A higher number, or more passes per chance, might mean a team passes the ball a lot, moves it from side-to-side, eats up the clock, tries to play through the defense, before striking.
Atlanta United interim head coach Rob Valentino is looking for a lower number out of his team, meaning he wants his team to play more directly. His philosophy is about playing with intention, as he said during his post-match press conference at Red Bull Arena:
“I’ve been part of a lot of games here. I’ve watched a lot of games here, and when I look at what are we doing with the possession. Do we really think we can play through? Then great, let’s do it. But if I think that we can be more direct and expose their center backs or expose a certain area of the pitch, let’s go and do it. Let’s not waste time with the ball. I’ve been that way with everything, right? The intentional possession of what we’re doing with it. So whether it’s here with Red Bull or somewhere else, I just want to make sure that we’re intentional about what we’re doing with the ball.”
A good example comes from Atlanta United’s most recent match, a 2-2 draw on the road against New York Red Bulls. The Red Bulls won the possession battle in this match, 60 percent compared to Atlanta’s 40 percent. The Red Bulls, a top team in the Eastern Conference, controlled the ball more throughout the match. They also ended up doubling Atlanta’s shots taken (20-10).
When that happens, and they’re playing a team with better control, Atlanta United must be efficient when they have the ball. The scoreline proves that Atlanta was. Atlanta United scored as many goals as Red Bulls, even though they possessed the ball less.
This idea is also proven in the passes per chance metric. Atlanta United had 28.8 passes per chance in open play Saturday against Red Bulls. That number shows Atlanta United was efficient and played more direct. It was also the third-best value in passes per chance for Atlanta’s away matches since 2023.
This is best shown with Atlanta’s opening goal from midfielder Alexey Miranchuk. He converted a penalty kick in first-half stoppage time to equalize the match just before halftime and even the scoreline 1-1.
Now, of course the goal itself doesn’t prove the metric’s meaning. There were no passes on the Miranchuk goal because it was a penalty kick (nor did the confident midfielder need one with his confident kick). The example comes in the play that leads up to the goal.
Atlanta’s possession starts with a ball won by Amador deep in Atlanta’s defensive half. The defender used the outside of his foot to flick the ball to the edge of the opponent’s box. Teammate Jay Fortune brings the ball down with his chest, controls it and passes it out of danger to eventual goal scorer Miranchuk.
Miranchuk makes a skillful turn into a lot of open space, showing his spatial awareness on the pitch. As the Red Bulls are clearing out, Miranchuk drops the ball back to Brooks Lennon in the fullback position. With time and space, Lennon spots his long-range target, a streaking Jamal Thiaré, and lines up a long pass over New York’s backline that drops in Atlanta’s attacking third. Thiaré uses his speed to run it down and take his defender 1v1.
In just four passes (Amador to Fortune, Fortune to Miranchuk, Miranchuk to Lennon, then Lennon to Thiaré), Atlanta United moved the ball from one end of the pitch to the other, where it ends up at the feet of their speedy striker in dangerous territory where he can be a threat and make something happen. And he did. He drew the foul inside the box that created the opportunity for Miranchuk to even the match.
It was an efficient play, and if efficiency is about doing things right, then Atlanta United found the right way, which led to a goal.
Atlanta United's Data Scientist & Analyst Arjun Balaraman contributed to this story. Atlanta United's Motion Graphics Producer and Video Editor Khoury Kennedy provided the video edit that accompanies this story.
